Bitcoin is not behaving the way crypto enthusiasts thought it would after the Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC. There was an uptick for the next two days, with prices reportedly touching the milestone of $48k; however, it was soon overtaken by the sentiments of the bear when the coin went for free fall. The current condition is such that BTC is way below $40,000, exchanging hands at $39,811.45.
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Nevertheless, experts are confident that Bitcoin will hit a bull run before ending in 2024. Predictions estimate that the BTC price may inch closer to its all-time high of $65,000 before opening its doors next year. Needless to say, this is speculation that may not necessarily be true. Most of it is based on the upcoming Bitcoin Halving and the decision on interest rates by the Federal Bank. Also, it is coupled with the fact that Bitcoin has surpassed Silver to become the second most-traded commodity ETF.
Factors Driving the Bullish Outlook
For now, the peak margin BTC is tasked with surpassing is $48,000. It is only then that the road to $65,000 will come into the limelight. This should not be a problem, for many believe that price correction was awaited for Bitcoin anyway.
Here are factors that are driving bullish sentiments for Bitcoin amid high volatility.
Bitcoin Halving
It is slated to happen in the middle of the year, with many anticipating that Bitcoin Halving could happen in May 2024. It has historical references to prove that prices rise around the time when the supply of Bitcoin is reduced, and mining rewards are reduced by half. The only fear that holds the community back is an underwhelming response similar to the approval of Bitcoin ETF applications.
An average price of $49,380 is estimated to be registered, with a maximum achievement of $57,500 by the end of this year. Also, a long-term perspective on BTC holdings states that it could touch $100k in the next year or so.
Institutional Adoption
Institutional investors are expected to take more interest in Bitcoin in 2024. It still needs more regulatory clarity and an announcement pertaining to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank. Nevertheless, the uptick in institutional activity is inevitable after the initial trigger that was noticed in October last year.
The likes of BlackRock and Fidelity are more involved in the segment. This makes it a key factor in providing more accessible investment options to institutional and retail investors. The fact that the BTC has increased in value by 75.02% since last year might further encourage adoption.
Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic factors entail aspects of inflation and global economic conditions. Plus, it covers global geopolitical conditions. For instance, any type of cross-border monetary exchange will limit how fiat currencies flow in and out of a particular region. Moreover, third parties are heavily involved in deciding how much cut should apply to every transaction.
Bitcoin, or any other crypto, for that matter, eliminates this principle to establish that exchanges should be open at the least possible cost for the betterment of global society and financial inclusion. As inflation gains strength, holders are likely to have less capital at their disposal for diversification in investment. Hence, it would be obvious for them to stick to those options, which are sure to fetch returns.
Potential Challenges and Risks
Bitcoin is considered to be a better store of value, almost comparable to gold, wherever crypto enthusiasts get a chance to do so. What gets ignored is the set of challenges and risks that BTC brings to the table. It largely includes volatility, as evident by the recent fall of Bitcoin to below $40,000 at the time of drafting this article.
There are also regulatory hurdles in several countries that have acknowledged that while CBDCs make sense, cryptos pave the way for uncontrolled outflow and AML activities. Technological advancements can be handled only if the returns are tangible. Not every country but El Salvador has legalized Bitcoin against all odds.
The volatility in the prices of Bitcoin and other digital currencies remains the point of discussion. They lack utility and have no backing whatsoever from global authorities. Work is pretty much underway to explore how its benefits can be transferred to people without putting them at risk.
That said, the market cap of Bitcoin is down by 3.08%, while the 24-hour volume has climbed the ladder by 108.39%.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is closer to hitting the psychological level of $38,000 than it is to surpass the recent peak of $48,000 (reportedly). Experts remain optimistic that the price of Bitcoin will rebound from the surface down below, yielding results without relying too much on Bitcoin Halving. Some have said that the price correction is only apparent; others have called it a natural movement on the graph.
It is recommended that traders and investors exercise due diligence and follow responsible investment practices before entering the cryptocurrency world.
