Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, rising 35% in just three weeks and nearing its late 2021 peak of $52,000. Could it climb even higher, even reaching its all-time high of $70,000 by April’s end? While a bullish consensus exists, a new player in the game, decentralized options marketplace Lyra, paints a slightly different picture.
Based on their data, there’s a 20% chance, or one in five, that Bitcoin will indeed cross the $70,000 mark by April 26th. This might seem surprising, considering the recent positive momentum fueled by factors like US spot ETF inflows, accommodative fiscal policy, and a receding global recession risk.
But remember, options tell a story. These derivatives allow traders to bet on future price movements, and Lyra’s latest listings – expiring on April 26th – reveal interesting insights. While there’s some “upside action” with traders buying call options for $64,000 and $70,000 strike prices, the overall picture leans towards caution.
Here’s the reasons (Bitcoin)
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Low Probability: Despite the recent rally, Lyra’s data suggests a relatively low chance of reaching $70,000 by April end. This might signify a more measured approach from sophisticated traders compared to the broader bullish sentiment.
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Reward Halving Factor: Bitcoin’s halving event, where the pace of new coin creation gets cut in half, is scheduled for mid-April. Some believe this could drive prices up due to limited supply. However, Lyra’s options market doesn’t seem overly hyped about this event’s immediate impact.
So, while Bitcoin hitting $70,000 by April end isn’t impossible, it appears to be a long shot based on Lyra’s options data. Remember, the crypto market is inherently volatile, and any predictions come with inherent risks.
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